The Week Ahead
October 19, 2026
Economic news
U.S. Housing Starts
Expected October 20th, U.S. housing starts will clue us in to homebuilder confidence, and overall demand for new real estate. Total housing starts in the U.S. declined by 2.6% month-over-month in August. Looking to September results, it will be interesting to see whether housing starts regained their footing, or if they are still facing tougher conditions given higher rates, and a more constrained consumer.1
U.S. Crude Inventories
According to TradingEconomics.com, U.S. crude inventories experienced the largest drop in five weeks.2 This comes as the markets react to news such as the Trump deal with Russia to provide diesel3, as well as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East that is significantly constraining oil reserves. That leaves the United States with a tough question: does it export oil for profits or save it for here at home? If the White House is going to import diesel fuel from Russia, it can be assumed that refineries may not be able to keep up with demand.
Earnings Related Market Movers
Netflix (NFLX)
Down 23% year to date, Netflix hasn’t been inspiring the same confidence that it has in the past. Streaming has become a crowded space with competitors like Peacock, Paramount+, Apple TV, and more competing for consumer’s attention.
The streaming giant heads into its third-quarter results on the 20th of October following a solid second quarter. Revenue rose 13% year-over-year to $12.56 billion, while earnings per share reached $0.804, slightly ahead of consensus estimates. Operating margin came in at 33%, in line with management’s guidance, and the company maintained its full-year operating margin target of 31.5%, alongside a revenue forecast of $51.0 to $51.4 billion.
However, the market’s reaction was driven less by the quarter itself than by the outlook: Netflix’s third quarter guidance of $12.86 billion in revenue and $0.82 in earnings per share fell short of Wall Street expectations, highlighting investors’ growing sensitivity to any signs of slowing momentum. Engagement also remains a key consideration, with viewing hours increasing by just 2% in the first half of 2026, albeit up from 1.5% growth for the whole of 2025.
Next week, investors will be looking for evidence that Netflix can sustain double-digit revenue growth while expanding its newer monetization opportunities. Advertising is a central part of that story, with management targeting approximately $3 billion in advertising revenue for 2026, roughly double the prior year’s contribution. Progress in attracting advertisers, converting audiences to ad-supported plans and monetizing live programming will therefore be important indicators of future growth. Equally, the market will scrutinize operating margins, free cash flow and management’s outlook for the final quarter, particularly as competition for viewers intensifies and content investment remains substantial.
General Motors (GM)
General Motors enters the week with a strong showing in adjusted operating performance, despite lower reported net income. In its second quarter 2026 results, the automaker reported revenue of $48.0 billion, up 1.9% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $3.9 billion, a 29.8% increase from the prior-year quarter. However, net income attributable to stockholders fell 31.1% to $1.3 billion, highlighting the difference between improved adjusted profitability and the company’s bottom-line results. North American operations were a key driver of performance, with adjusted EBIT for the segment climbing 42.7% to $3.4 billion. These results underscore the importance of GM’s core automotive business as investors assess the company’s earnings quality and operating efficiency.
Looking ahead, GM has raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance for the second time this year, now projecting a range of $14 to $16 billion, compared with its previous forecast of $13.5 to $15.5 billion. The company also increased its adjusted automotive free cash flow outlook to $9.5 to $11.5 billion and its adjusted diluted earnings-per-share forecast to $12 to $14. The improved outlook signals management’s confidence in the business, although investors will continue to weigh reported earnings, cash generation and the potential for future special-item adjustments. This week, GM’s updated guidance provides a useful benchmark for evaluating its execution through the remainder of the year and whether stronger adjusted results can translate into sustained financial performance.5
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla heads into its third quarter earnings report following a mixed performance in Q2 2026, when the electric vehicle maker delivered 480,126 vehicles and deployed 13.5 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage products. Revenue reached $28.24 billion, but adjusted earnings per share came in below analyst expectations, highlighting continued pressure on profitability despite resilient sales. Investors will be watching automotive margins, vehicle pricing and cost controls to determine whether Tesla can translate its scale into stronger earnings growth. The energy storage business remains another important contributor to the outlook, as demand for battery storage provides a potential source of growth beyond vehicle sales.
Looking ahead to Tesla’s Q3 results investors will be assessing whether the company can deliver improved profitability while sustaining demand6. Tesla has already reported third-quarter deliveries of 13.7 GWh of energy storage deployments alongside 486,532 vehicles, up modestly from Q2 but down 2.1% from a year earlier. The key questions will be whether vehicle margins are stabilizing, whether energy can offset softness in the automotive business, and what management signals about demand, autonomous driving and the company’s broader growth strategy heading into year-end.
1 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts
2 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-stocks-change
3 https://apnews.com/article/trump-russia-diesel-midterms-12baccc7aade559bf329079b0548c9da
4 https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/FINAL-Q2-26-Shareholder-Letter.pdf
5 https://investor.gm.com/static-files/4ee9aed7-9a23-46d5-aa6c-093668907497
6 https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q2-2026-Update.pdf
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