The Week Ahead
September 21, 2026
Economic news
Interest rates
While the event may have occurred last week, it is important to take into consideration the Fed’s decision from September 16th, as it will have major implications for upcoming economic events.1 The Fed raised the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%, an increase of 25 basis points in an attempt to curtail inflation. The question becomes how much of inflation is being driven by energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, which could make moving interest rates much less effective.
Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims have been drifting in the right direction. There was a 10,000 person decline in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the second week of September to 196,000. At the same time, continuing jobless claims, which are a gauge of ongoing unemployment, fell to 1.73 million. That’s a 39,000-person decline. Looking to next week’s results, investors and economists alike will be looking to see if this nice trend of declining claims can keep going. The economy needs good news given the implementation of new higher interest rates if the Fed is to be able to continue the fight against inflation.2
Earnings Related Market Movers
Cracker Barrel (CBRL)
Cracker Barrel stock has had a rough decline of 23% over the last month. Some weakening sales are the culprit, and investors are likely looking to see if the restaurant chain can change gears.
From fiscal 2022 through 2025, Cracker Barrel has seen its growth slow down. Part of that may be attributable to the failed rebrand that occurred that caused a shake-up including a new CEO, David Deno.3 The difficulty displayed in Cracker Barrel’s business is prevalent in its fiscal third quarter results. Revenue fell 2.9% year-over-year to $797.4 million, with comparable restaurant sales down 2.6% and retail sales down 1.8%.
The brighter spot was management’s increased full-year outlook. The company originally had guidance for revenue of $3.24 – $3.27 billion and now expects revenue of $3.27 – $3.30 billion. It also raised its adjusted EBITDA outlook from $85 – $100 million to $120 – $125 million.
Looking ahead, the theme here will certainly be if Cracker Barrel has been able to shrug off its brand change mishap and return to strong comparable-store sales growth. Topline growth has been slow in fiscal 2024 and 2025 and needs to pick up in the second half of 2026.
Costco Wholesaler (COST)
One of the late Charlie Munger’s favorite stocks, Costco has been a gem over the long run, gaining 95% over the last five years. More recently, shares have been slower as the company’s valuation relative to earnings has become steeper. Total revenues increased 11.5% in the fiscal third quarter to $70.5 billion; leading to a 15% increase in earnings per diluted share of $4.93. Trading at roughly 45 times trailing earnings, Costco has a lot to prove.
Analyst estimates are expecting fiscal 2026 to end with $20.52 in earnings.4 That would give Costco a P/E ratio of roughly 44 times earnings, keeping it right in the current range. According to Macrotrends.net, Costco’s price-to-earnings ratio has increased from 18.39 in 2012, to its current trend in the 40’s and 50’s.5
Looking ahead, investors will be seeking signs that Costco can continue to live up to its price gains. While there are certainly more expensive stocks, they typically produce higher growth rates. Perhaps even more important than the fiscal fourth quarter financial results will be any commentary from management on guidance for fiscal 2027.
Stitch Fix (SFIX)
Stitch Fix heads into the coming weeks with investors focused on whether its recent return to revenue growth can continue. In its third quarter of fiscal 2026, the company reported net revenue of $340.3 million, up 4.7% year-over-year. Active clients increased 0.9% sequentially to 2.309 million, while revenue per active client climbed 6.6% from a year earlier to $578.6
The numbers also highlight the areas investors may continue to watch closely. Stitch Fix remained slightly unprofitable, recording a $1.5 million net loss, while gross margin declined 50 basis points year-over-year to 43.7%. At the same time, the company generated $6.5 million in free cash flow during the quarter and repurchased 4.5 million shares for $15.1 million. Stitch Fix ended the quarter with $229.4 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments while also carrying no debt. This gives the company financial flexibility as it continues its efforts to improve its client experience, assortment and personalization strategy.
The next major catalyst for Stitch Fix is the company’s fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 report, scheduled for after the market closes on September 23rd. Stitch Fix previously projected fourth quarter revenue of $322 million to $327 million. For the full fiscal year, management forecasted revenue of $1.346 billion to $1.351 billion while expecting cash flow to remain positive.
For investors watching the stock, the upcoming report should provide an important update on client growth, revenue trends and profitability as Stitch Fix moves beyond its latest quarter of improving operating results.
1 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html
2 https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-initial-jobless-claims-dropped-to-196k-last-week-202609171234
3 https://investor.crackerbarrel.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cracker-barrel-announces-ceo-succession
4 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/cost/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
5 https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/COST/costco/pe-ratio
6 https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx
Financial Planning and Advisory Services offered through Vicus Capital, Inc., a federally Registered Investment Advisor.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.
Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Information and data referred to in this document has been compiled solely by Vicus Capital, Inc., from various sources and has not been independently verified. We believe the information presented here to be reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. The material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, nor should it be relied upon for, accounting, legal, or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. There is no guarantee that companies that can issue dividends will declare, continue to pay, or increase dividends. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage.
