The Week Ahead
August 31, 2026
Economic news
United States Balance of Trade
The July U.S. balance of trade report, which measures the difference between what the U.S. exports and imports, will come out September 3rd. Currently the U.S. is in a trade deficit, meaning our imports are exceeding our exports. In the previous report covering June, the deficit was $73.3 billion, down from $77.6 billion in May. Exports for June were $314.7 billion and imports were $388.0 billion.1 It will be interesting to see if the deficit has grown or shrunk in the next report, especially as we get closer to the mid-term elections.
Unemployment Rate
The U.S. unemployment rate release on Friday, September 4, 2026 is significant because it will provide the first official reading of the labor market for August 2026. In July, unemployment was at 4.1%2 and payroll employment actually fell by 23,000. Earlier May and June job gains were also revised downward by a combined 103,000.3 That combination makes the September report particularly important. Investors and economists will be looking to see whether July was an isolated weak month or evidence that the labor market is losing momentum.
The number also matters for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy and financial markets. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate would generally indicate a cooling labor market and could strengthen expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially putting downward pressure on interest rates and the dollar. Conversely, a lower-than-expected rate could suggest continued labor-market resilience and reduce the urgency for cuts. The key caveat is that the unemployment rate should be read alongside payroll growth, labor-force participation, wages, and revisions, since the unemployment rate can fall even when hiring is weak—for example, if people leave the labor force.
Earnings Related Market Movers
Dell Technologies (DELL)
Dell Technologies heads into next week’s earnings release with the momentum of a blockbuster first quarter. The company reported an 88% increase in revenue year-over-year in the first fiscal quarter of 2027. With revenue of $43.8 billion, the stock is up 261% year to date. So, what happened? AI-related servers saw a huge 757% spike in revenue to $16.13 billion.4 From that momentum, Dell reported record diluted earnings per share of $5.24, a 282% increase year-over-year. Looking at the second quarter, everyone will be waiting to see if guidance provided in the first quarter results holds true. Dell said it booked $24.4 billion in AI server orders during the quarter. The results prompted the company to raise its full-year outlook sharply, including a forecast for roughly $60 billion in AI-optimized server revenue.
The question for next week is what Dell will have to say about this continuing story with AI related hardware. Expectations have risen considerably, and this will certainly be a focal point for the second quarter results. Management guided for revenue of $44 billion to $45 billion, non-GAAP EPS of about $4.80, and full-year revenue guidance was raised from $165 billion to $169 billion. Dell is scheduled to report its fiscal second quarter results on September 1st. With expectations already elevated, investors will likely be looking not just for another strong quarter, but for evidence that the AI infrastructure boom can continue to support Dell’s aggressive outlook.
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
Ollie’s Bargain Outlet entered fiscal 2026 on a strong note. In the first quarter ended May 2, 2026, net sales increased 14.2% to $658.9 million, while diluted earnings per share rose 19% to $0.92.5 The company opened 27 new stores, ending the quarter with 672 locations across 35 states, and comparable-store sales increased 1.7%. Gross margin also improved to 41.9%, up 80 basis points from the prior year, with Ollie’s pointing to lower supply-chain costs and a modest increase in merchandise margin. Management said the results reflected strong top-line performance, unit growth, robust margins and disciplined expense control, and raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $4.45-$4.55.
Looking ahead to the next quarterly announcement, the key question is whether Ollie’s can build on what it did in the first quarter. The company’s full-year outlook calls for roughly 2% comparable-store sales growth, about 40.7% gross margin and 75 new store openings. That makes the next quarter particularly important as investors will be watching to see whether the first-quarter performance was the beginning of a broader trend. With management already raising its earnings outlook following the first quarter, another solid performance could provide further support for that guidance; a weaker quarter, meanwhile, could put greater scrutiny on whether the company can deliver against the targets it has set for the full year.
Lululemon (LULU)
Lululemon heads into next week’s earnings report after a challenging first quarter. Revenue increased 4% to $2.5 billion, but comparable sales rose just 1%. Profitability was weaker, too; gross margin fell 410 basis points to 54.2%, operating income declined 37%, and diluted EPS fell to $1.69 from $2.60 a year earlier.6 The company said it saw sequential improvement in full-price sales in North America and continued momentum internationally, while also acknowledging that there is more work to do.
For the quarter being announced next week, Lululemon’s own guidance calls for revenue of $2.45 billion to $2.475 billion, a 3% to 2% decline from the prior-year period, with diluted EPS expected between $1.76 and $1.81. That puts the focus squarely on whether the company can deliver against those expectations while building on the early signs of improvement in North America. Investors will also be watching the company’s gross margin and profitability closely after the significant pressure seen in the first quarter. Ultimately, the next report should offer a clearer indication of whether lululemon’s recent investments and initiatives are beginning to translate into a recovery in its core business.
1 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
2 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
3 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com
4 https://investors.delltechnologies.com/static-files/ef369f17-2b83-4fd4-9a37-6b6ab53ac9c5
5 https://investors.ollies.com/news-releases/news-release-details/ollies-bargain-outlet-holdings-inc-announces-first-quarter-9
6 https://corporate.lululemon.com/newsroom/press-releases/2026/06-04-2026-210523775
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