The Week Ahead
August 3, 2026
Economic news
U.S. Trade Balance
The U.S. trade deficit increased to $77.6 billion in May1, resulting in a 42.2% increase in overall trade deficits2. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, exports were[DB3.1] down 3.2% to $317.7 billion, while imports rose 3.3% to $395.3 billion, with higher purchases in pharmaceuticals, cell phones, and oil and cars; With the next June release scheduled for August 4th, markets are certainly waiting to see if there is any improvement.
U.S. Unemployment Report August 7th
U.S. unemployment has been moving in the right direction, with May levels being the lowest since June of 20253. Unemployment then declined again, coming in at 4.2% in June. According to TradingEconomics.com, the consensus for July unemployment is 4.3%. That would keep it relatively in line with the two previous estimates, and limit surprises for economists. No doubt markets will be looking to see if that downward trend continued in July.
Earnings Related Market Movers
Gilead Sciences August 4th
Gilead Sciences has benefitted from the continued growth of its HIV related drugs. In all, first quarter revenues were up 4% to just under $7 billion. Diluted earnings per share were up 54.8% to $1.61.
As for the second quarter, investors will be focused on seeing whether Gilead’s guidance and outlook remain feasible, along with the narrative of its pipeline of new products. Gilead provided an outlook in the first quarter that included expected product sales of $30 billion to $30.40 billion, an increase from previous guidance from February. In all, this quarter could potentially be a wash from an earnings perspective, as the company expects to incorporate the costs of bringing on Arcellx inc, Ouro Medicines, and Tubulis GmbH. While the acquisition of something like Tubulis expands Gilead’s exposure to oncology portfolio treatments, it also puts the company back $3.15 billion4.
The major question here is whether Gilead is making the fundamental steps necessary to grow the big picture over the long term.
McDonald’s August 4th
McDonald’s is coming off of a decent first quarter that did not reward the share price. Global comparable sales increased by 3.8%, and global systemwide sales increased 6% on a constant currency basis to over $34 billion5. Domestically, U.S. comparable sales grew 3.9% vs. a decline of 3.6% in 2025.
Despite a 7% increase in diluted earnings per share to $2.78, the stock is down 12.02% year to date. In all, McDonald’s is telling a better story this year, but despite improvements in companywide sales of 3.8%, an improvement from last year’s decline of 1.0%, it seems the market wants to see more.
Revenues from franchised restaurants made up the bulk of McDonald’s revenue stream, bringing in over $4 billion, while sales by company-owned stores made up $2.3 billion of the total revenues for the company. Analyst estimates are calling for fiscal 2026 earnings of $12.91 per share6, a bump from 2025’s earnings of $11.95 per share7. As a whole McDonald’s shares have underperformed over the last five years, gaining a mere 10.72%.
Looking ahead, the narrative here will likely continue to revolve around if global comp sales can maintain their improving momentum. The consumer is facing the effects of inflation, which still implies a detractor on McDonald’s demand.
Disney August 5th
Disney reports fiscal third-quarter results this week after a stronger-than-expected second quarter reinforced confidence in the company’s diversified growth story. In the previous quarter, revenue rose 7% year over year to $25.2 billion, while adjusted earnings per share increased 20% to $1.55, driven by continued momentum in streaming, solid performances from Disney Experiences and improved profitability across the business. Management also raised its full-year adjusted EPS growth outlook to 16%, up from previous guidance of 10%, reflecting confidence in the trajectory of both its entertainment and parks businesses8.
Investors will be watching whether Disney can sustain that momentum despite a more uncertain consumer backdrop. Key areas of focus are likely to include subscriber trends at Disney+ and Hulu, profitability in the direct-to-consumer business, domestic and international parks attendance, and commentary on the second-half film slate and ESPN strategy. Markets will also be looking for any update to full-year guidance following management’s upbeat outlook last quarter, as well as signs that the company’s streaming strategy continues to translate into earnings growth.
1 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
2 https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-may-2026
3 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
4 https://www.gilead.com/news/news-details/2026/gilead-sciences-completes-acquisition-of-tubulis-further-strengthening-oncology-portfolio
5 https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/Q1%202026%20Exhibit%2099.1%20-%203.31.26.pdf
6 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mcd/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
7 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mcd/financials?mod=mw_quote_tab
8 https://s206.q4cdn.com/979796730/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/q2-fy26-earnings.pdf
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