The Week Ahead
June 29, 2026
Economic news
ADP National Employment Report July 1st
On Wednesday the ADP Employment report will come out, indicating how many private sector jobs were gained in June. Private business hiring has been on an uptick over the last few months, with 105,000 jobs added in April, and 122,000 in May1. ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson commented that the “market continues to show sustained momentum going into the summer hiring season”.
Markets will no doubt be looking to see if this trend continued in June, as the labor market seems to be resilient in the face of continued inflation. As Richardson noted, the hiring was “broad-based” in May, with hiring across areas like construction, manufacturing, trades; transportation and utilities; financial activities; and business services. The weak areas for hiring have been information and natural resources/mining2, which have both lost jobs.
United States API Crude Oil Stock Change June 30th
The United States API Crude Oil Stock Change is a weekly measure published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that shows how U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have increased or decreased compared with the previous week. It is one of the most closely watched indicators in energy markets because it provides an early signal about supply and demand conditions for oil. Declining inventories can cause a bullish scenario for oil prices, and vice versa for increasing inventories.
Not surprisingly given the conflict in the Middle East, inventories have been declining over the last few weeks, with a fall of 765,000 barrels for the week ending on June 19th3. However, this was a significant improvement from the 8.33 million barrel decline that occurred in the week ended June 12th. It will be interesting to see how inventories will be impacted by the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran.
Earnings Related Market Movers
Nike (NKE) June 30th
Down 35% year to date, Nike’s earnings report next week will be closely watched for evidence that CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround efforts are gaining traction. In its most recent quarter, fiscal Q3 2026, revenue was essentially flat at $11.3 billion4, but the composition of that performance mattered. Wholesale sales returned to growth, rising 5%, while Nike Direct revenue fell 4% and digital sales declined 9%.
Investors will be looking for signs that the company’s strategy of rebuilding relationships with wholesale partners is translating into broader sales momentum without further weakening its direct-to-consumer business. Regional performance will also be under scrutiny, particularly in North America, where revenue growth offset continued weakness in Greater China, where sales fell 7% on a reported basis and 10% on a currency-neutral basis.
Margins, profitability, and inventory are likely to be the most watched metrics in the release. Nike’s gross margin contracted 130 basis points to 40.2% in the third quarter, with management citing higher tariffs in North America as a key headwind. Net income declined 35% year-over-year and earnings per share fell to $0.35, highlighting the pressure that inventory actions, tariffs and restructuring efforts continue to place on earnings. Inventory was down 1% year-over-year in the last quarter, suggesting some progress in cleaning up the balance sheet.
The key question remains whether Nike can stabilize margins while reigniting demand across its core footwear and apparel categories.
General Mills (GIS) July 1st
After peaking in fiscal 2023 with over $20 billion in revenue, General Mills’ stock is down 31% over the last 12 months. Its topline growth is faltering. Revenues declined 8% year-over-year in the most recent fiscal third quarter, and earnings dropped a difficult 52%5. Looking ahead to next week, the outlook is not overly optimistic.
General Mills provided guidance for the full fiscal year that includes a decline of 1.5% to 2% in organic net sales. The company had commentary in their third quarter results that stated that the top priority is to “restore volume-driven organic net sales growth over the long term.” It admitted that it currently faces a “challenging consumer backdrop”, and would be focusing on investing in consumer value, innovation, and brand building.
Analyst estimates are anticipating a further decline in earnings through fiscal 20276. Investors will most likely be watching for commentary from General Mills next week on its anticipations for fiscal 2027 or for more details on a plan to turn things around.
Constellation Brands (STZ) June 30th
Constellation Brands, which owns Corona, Modello, High West Whiskey etc., saw a year-over-year shift to positive net income in the fiscal fourth quarter. However, with the stock down 11.3% over the last twelve months, investors will be looking for signs the momentum can continue. Management highlighted encouraging trends across both its Beer and Wine & Spirits businesses, but the company remains cautious on the near-term outlook, as net sales still declined year-over-year.
For fiscal 2027, Constellation expects enterprise organic net sales to range from a 1% decline to 1% growth7, with similar expectations for both its Beer and Wine & Spirits segments. Investors will be paying close attention to volume trends, market share performance and consumer demand across key beer brands, as well as any indications that conditions are improving faster than management currently anticipates.
Constellation is guiding for comparable earnings per share of $11.20 to $11.90 in fiscal 2027, broadly in line with the $11.82 delivered in fiscal 2026. The company expects enterprise operating margins of 32% to 33%, including beer margins of 37% to 38%, while generating $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion in operating cash flow and $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion in free cash flow. Notably, management has withdrawn its previously issued fiscal 2028 outlook, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the operating environment.
As a result, investors will be looking for any updates on demand trends, margin resilience and capital allocation priorities, including shareholder returns, as management navigates a period of slower growth and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.
1 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/adp-employment-change
2 https://adpemploymentreport.com/
3 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/api-crude-oil-stock-change
4 https://s1.q4cdn.com/806093406/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/Q3-26-Press-Release-FINAL-42.pdf
5 https://s29.q4cdn.com/993087495/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/F26-Q3-Press-Release-For-Website.pdf
6 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gis/analystestimates?mod=mw_quote_tab
7 https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_c9c854083595abd1d9f328d6721dae95/cbrands/db/964/9836/file/Earnings+Release_FY26Q4.pdf
Financial Planning and Advisory Services offered through Vicus Capital, Inc., a federally Registered Investment Advisor.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.
Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Information and data referred to in this document has been compiled solely by Vicus Capital, Inc., from various sources and has not been independently verified. We believe the information presented here to be reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. The material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, nor should it be relied upon for, accounting, legal, or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.
The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. There is no guarantee that companies that can issue dividends will declare, continue to pay, or increase dividends. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage.
