The Week Ahead
June 15, 2026
Economic news
Federal Funds Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce a decision on interest rates next week, and it could have major ramifications for the economy, and how inflation is addressed. There seems to be growing dissent among the members of the committee about what should be done with rates. In April, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, but the vote was 8-4; an occurrence that has not happened since 19921.
Different groups stand to benefit from varying outcomes. Higher interest rates would potentially put downward pressure on prices for consumers, but they would also have negative connotations for the job market. On the other end of the spectrum, lower interest rates would stand to create an environment for more inflation, and a potentially stronger job market. There is of course also the possibility that the FOMC decides to keep rates where they currently are.
The U.S. had a stronger than expected jobs report2 which could make the Fed more inclined to raise rates higher to combat inflation, but this runs the risk of putting a damper on the economy. One could also question what effect rates will have on energy prices, given that it is largely a supply issue as a result of the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, rather than a simple inflation issue. Overall, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is starting out with his hands full.
United States Retail Sales YoY
The change in retail sales is one of the main indicators of consumer spending, which represents a lot of the economy’s activity. U.S. retail sales for May will be announced June 17th and should provide some insight into the strength of the consumer during a time of high prices. April retail sales increased 4.9%3 year over year, beating last year’s results by 0.7%. It will be interesting to see what happened in May, as prices of goods continue to rise. This should provide some keen insights into how consumers are reacting to inflation.
Earnings Related Market Movers
Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY)
Down 27% year to date, Dave & Buster’s has struggled to find momentum. The bar/restaurant/gaming chain has seen its revenues decline two fiscal years in a row. On top of the declining revenues, Dave & Busters shifted to losses in fiscal 2025, losing $48.7 million versus positive net income of $58.3 million in fiscal 2024.
Despite this, there have been small improvements in areas of the business. While earnings are what drive stock prices over the long term, this next earnings report will likely be all about comparable store sales and overall revenue. Investors need proof that the return to growth can really happen. The company is slowly moving in that direction, as comparable store sales improved to a decrease of 5.0% in 20254 compared to a decrease of 7.2% in 20245.
Looking at fiscal 2026, the question is whether this push towards positive comparable sales will accelerate. CEO Tarun Lal stated that in fiscal 2026, the company expects an increase in same store sales and revenue. Still, the environment is not particularly great right now, as consumers are facing higher prices on essentials like groceries and fuel. It leaves less cash available to attend a place like Dave & Busters.
All in all, the company opened 11 new stores in fiscal 2025 and remodeled 16 existing locations. It indicates confidence from management, despite contributing to a loss of $48.7 million last year. It will be interesting to see what happened in fiscal Q1.
CarMax (KMX)
CarMax has been stagnant for years in terms of revenue growth. The largest used-car retailer in the U.S. has lost 57% of its value over the last five years, as annual revenues have declined consistently since 20226. The company’s most recent fiscal fourth quarter didn’t deviate from the trend.
This is a company that recently had a change of leadership with Keith Barr being appointed President and CEO as of March 16th. Barr emphasized “urgency to improve execution, drive efficiencies, and sharpen our customer offering”.
In theory, CarMax should be positioned to deliver on pricing competition. As the largest in the nation, it should have a competitive advantage. For the year ended February 28th, total net sales/operating revenues declined 1.8% year over year to $25.88 billion7. Shareholders’ equity declined year over year from $6.24 billion to $5.88 billion, and earnings per diluted share fell 47% year over year to $1.68.
Looking to earnings next week, which will represent their first fiscal quarter, investors will no doubt be looking to hear more about Keith Barr’s plans for getting CarMax back in gear. It is probably too early to see major changes in results, but any clues or indicators that Barr’s approach is working will more than likely affect the stock, as investors will be looking to see the path toward which new leadership is heading.
1 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
2 https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/may-jobs-report-unemployment-fde062e1
3 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales-annual
4 https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-end-2025
5 https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-year-end-2024
6 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/kmx/financials/income
7 https://investors.carmax.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/CarMax-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results/default.aspx
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