The Week Ahead
May 4, 2026
Economic news
U.S. Unemployment Rate
The U.S. unemployment rate comes out Friday May 8th and is often seen as a key indicator of the health of the economy. Over the last year, we’ve seen an uptick in unemployment. After spiking to 4.5% in November 2025, the rate decreased to 4.3% as of March 20261. However, this is still higher than the reading in March 2025 which sat at 4.2%. The U-6 unemployment rate, which monitors discouraged and underemployed workers, carried a higher rate of unemployment at 8%2. It will be important to see where these figures ended for April, especially after jobless claims hit the lowest level in 50 years last week, with aid applications falling to 189,0003.
Trade Deficit
International trade has been a highly discussed topic since the April 2025 announcement of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. While the dust continues to settle from the effects of the Supreme Court decision regarding the tariffs at the end of February, the next report on the U.S. monthly trade deficit will come out on May 5th4. The monthly international trade deficit increased to $57.3 billion in February, compared to $54.7 billion in January; if the trends continues, this deficit will increase.
Earnings Related Market Movers
Disney (DIS)
Disney is an interesting case right now. Through CEO changes, an ever-evolving streaming landscape, and a tougher environment for top line growth, Disney shares are in a unique spot.
While revenues increased 5% in the first fiscal quarter reported back in February, diluted earnings per share stagnated at $1.34 per share compared to $1.40 per share in Q1 of 2025. The entertainment giant has faced the struggle of ramping up its place within streaming, while also keeping its more traditional areas of the business firing on all cylinders.
This week, news broke that the new CEO Josh D’Amaro was pivoting on previous plans, with the intention of keeping ESPN rather than spinning off the veteran sports news platform5. No doubt investors will be eager to hear his plans on this front in their earnings results next week, among other things like its streaming growth and profits.
McDonald’s (MCD)
McDonald’s is coming off of a decent fourth quarter, with comparable sales increasing 5.7%, and global systemwide sales increasing $7 billion (in constant currencies) to over $139 billion. The U.S. market was particularly strong, with 6.8% growth in comparable sales. In all, the fast-food chain finished the year with a 10% gain on total revenues, and an 8% increase in earnings per diluted share6. And yet the stock market seemed generally unimpressed, with shares pulling back since February.
Overall, McDonald’s has gone through a few years of ups and downs in terms of topline revenue growth rates. The stock has been mostly disappointing over the last year, with a total return of -8%. Expected to report first quarter results on May 7th, it will be intriguing to see what kind of guidance or indicators management provides as to how they expect 2026 to play out.
Planet Fitness (PLNT)
By far the biggest mover on this list, Planet Fitness is down a tough 39% year to date. The stock performance comes after a few years of impressive growth. Net income increased by 39% in 2023, 24.39% in 2024, and 27% in 2025 respectively7.
Some key areas saw a slowdown in Q48, which might be indicative of the stock drawback. It also doesn’t help that 2026 guidance was a bit soft, with total system-wide same club sales expected to grow 4% to 5%; and revenue to increase 9% compared to a 12.06% increase in 2025. It does beg the question, is Planet Fitness running out of steam?
The upcoming first quarter results will be a telling tale of whether previous guidance is accurate, or if Planet Fitness still has something left in the tank.
1 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
2 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/u6-unemployment-rate
3 https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/weekly-u-s-jobless-claims-fall-to-189000-lowest-in-more-than-five-decades
4 https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
5 https://www.businessinsider.com/espn-disney-spin-sell-decision-josh-damaro-2026-4
6 https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/content/dam/sites/corp/nfl/pdf/MCD%20Q4-25%20-%20Exhibit%2099.1%20-%20vF.pdf
7 https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/plnt/financials/income
8 https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/03/planet-fitness-stock-has-been-absolutely-hammered/
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